Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 714.150651 803.572997 903.166496 1022.926755 1163.840862 1325.376680 1525.999920
2025-02-23 588.645924 708.641998 854.665267 1048.014529 1301.238119 1627.279347 2088.433945
2025-03-02 526.246239 662.082529 837.399905 1085.451478 1436.174242 1928.627125 2699.910088
2025-03-09 476.882646 620.728275 815.113717 1105.154235 1541.982629 2202.358743 3334.658380
2025-03-16 433.569121 579.975666 785.340150 1105.557240 1614.389941 2434.856101 3961.822151
2025-03-23 404.456888 554.581043 772.460583 1126.401131 1718.214841 2734.429081 4788.868466
2025-03-30 366.233410 511.424780 727.556560 1089.695720 1719.421264 2855.607083 5312.244798
2025-04-06 334.622541 474.836859 688.289409 1055.982930 1718.538635 2970.025439 5854.625935
2025-04-13 306.333633 440.704477 649.245226 1017.241363 1701.495733 3048.256260 6340.690137
2025-04-20 296.449884 434.181374 653.408144 1052.821159 1827.540907 3440.906881 7727.161297
2025-04-27 283.300505 421.206953 645.453721 1065.345453 1910.278723 3760.395430 9065.757047
2025-05-04 270.305100 407.359059 634.571041 1070.798239 1979.056746 4064.516744 10507.530492
2025-05-11 255.917757 390.461063 617.496471 1063.596506 2022.588140 4326.657161 11986.979617
2025-05-18 248.230217 384.291785 618.772624 1092.496162 2151.317417 4842.712418 14676.413387
2025-05-25 242.594920 381.111521 624.958618 1131.826722 2311.542844 5495.528958 18411.304790
2025-06-01 234.869695 373.638593 622.452061 1152.629270 2431.601761 6075.959296 22391.400332
2025-06-08 225.226139 362.042881 611.128086 1153.053931 2500.835160 6526.538426 26225.713338
2025-06-15 218.873571 355.926163 609.732683 1175.056472 2630.871878 7224.871549 32266.918892
2025-06-22 206.223213 337.468748 582.791469 1136.315046 2589.581707 7320.078427 34785.590564
2025-06-29 194.881868 320.813263 558.289882 1100.749789 2551.707663 7419.527320 37520.003716
2025-07-06 183.795365 304.068180 532.553593 1059.900673 2492.792878 7425.761795 39658.539867
2025-07-13 181.390895 303.525676 539.521385 1097.415157 2670.180290 8428.326333 51557.176091
2025-07-20 176.722231 298.371076 536.599442 1110.625061 2777.690169 9199.005127 63348.596965